Hurricane Tobias
Hurricane Tobias was the 5th most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, and the latest Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since Mitch in 1998, as well as the latest storm to form in the main development region (MDR) since Hurricane Tomas of 2010. Tobias's impacts were widespread and catastrophic. Meteorological History A poorly defined tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on October 19. The wave was somewhat small, and lacked significant convection. Because of this, the National Hurricane Center initially ignored the wave. No change occurred for a few days as the wave traveled west. The wave battled unfavorable conditions at this time, but the NHC noted conditions could become a little more favorable later on in a Tropical weather discussion. Dry air decreased significantly more than models anticipated, and with low wind shear, Tropical Depression Twenty formed on October 24. It was forecast to become a weak TS before dissipating in 48 hours. It gradually intensified into Tropical Storm Tobias and continued westward. Struggling against dry air, Tobias weakened to a Tropical Depression on October 26, but it had potential to re-intensify, as models showed less wind shear near the Bahamas. Tobias eventually re-intensified into a Tropical Storm and approached the Lesser Antilles. With decreasing wind shear, Tobias developed a Central Dense Overcast and began to intensify quickly. Tobias moved north of the Lesser Antilles on October 28, dropping torrential rains. With rapidly increasing convection and a developing eyewall, Tobias intensified into a hurricane that night. Despite moderate dry air, Tobias began to undergo rapid intensification in low shear and warm waters. On October 31, Tobias entered the southeastern Bahamas, becoming a major hurricane. The intensification trend only got faster as dry air began to decrease. Tobias initially struggled to clear an eye early on, but by now, Tobias had a powerful, stable eyewall showing a symmetrical, clear eye. This was Tobias's presentation as it was upgraded to a Category 5 Hurricane. At this intensity, Tobias rampaged through the Bahamas, devastating some of the more southern Islands. Models continued to forecast weakening, but Tobias was too well-defined to weaken at that time. On November 1, Tobias reached ultimate peak, with incredible winds of 185 mph and a pressure of 897 millibars, before it reached cold wake from Hurricane Paula earlier in the season. Tobias began to weaken, but it crossed over the Florida Keyes with 165 mph winds, becoming the first C5 hurricane to hit the United States since Hurricane Humberto in 2019. Shortly after this, land interaction and cooling ocean temperatures weakened Tobias below Category 5 status on November 3 as it entered the Gulf of Mexico. Tobias began to fluctuate in intensity as it moved into the Gulf of Mexico. After completeng an eyewall replacement cycle, Tobias reached secondary peak winds of 160 mph. At this time, Tobias was moving toward the Gulf Coast. Models showed an exceptionally intense landfall on the Gulf coast. However, a rapid decrease in warm water led to a collapse of the eyewall, and the storm began to deteriorate. On November 3, Tobias made landfall in Jackson, Mississippi, as a Category 4 hurricane, with 140 mph winds. Tobias moved over the continental United States, losing tropical characteristics over Ohio. As the remnants moved over the Gulf stream a couple days later, some convection began to organize with the remnants. In an extremely rare event, Subtropical Depression Tobias re-formed on November 7, aided by warm Gulf stream waters. Six hours later is was upgraded to a Subtropical storm before reaching a third and final peak of 60 mph. Tobias briefly transitioned into a Tropical Storm before entering frigid waters. Tobias became extratropical on November 8, and raced across the North Atlantic, eventually battering Iceland.Category:Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes Category:Costly storms Category:Destructive storms